US Labor Market Raises Concerns

The Week Ahead: Week of 3 October (GMT+3)

Tuesday, 3 October, 06:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decisions (Oct)

After two consecutive months of unchanged interest rates, economists believe this pause is meant to assess the impact of previous rate increases on the country’s economy. As the results show, the country’s inflation is slowing down, and economists hold high expectations for another rate hike in the upcoming quarter.

Tuesday, 3 October, 17:00 – US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)

On the final day of July, job openings fell to 8.827 million, marking the lowest level since March 2021. Economists suggest that this cooling labour market supports the possibility of achieving an economic soft landing which aims to bring inflation under control.

Wednesday, 4 October, 17:00 – NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The RBNZ opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels for the second consecutive meeting but indicated a potential need for further rate hikes to combat inflation. Besides, the RBNZ predicts that the economy may be headed for another downturn, although it expects these contractions to be relatively modest in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

Friday, 6 October, 15:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

In August, nonfarm payrolls rose by 187,000, surpassing the estimated 170,000. The healthcare sector experienced the most significant growth, while the transportation and warehousing sector faced losses. Overall, this suggests that the nation is approaching full employment, with supply and demand aligning more closely.

Friday, 6 October, 15:30 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)

The unemployment rate in August stood at 3.8%, marking a significant increase from July and the highest level since February 2022, signalling a cooling US economy. Goldman Sachs suggests that factors like the Hollywood writers’ strike and the Yellow trucking bankruptcy likely contributed to the lower payrolls count.